Honestly, Not Terrible

I'm not too upset about this year's transfer market. We have done very little but that's OK given the spending we did to fuel Sahin's vision for the club last offseason. Look at United, spending more money to try and make up for a previous poor investment rarely pays off and more often just digs the club into a deeper hole. So, I think it's good to pump the breaks a bit, regroup and work on finding our post-Sahin identity. I get the criticism though, we look so close to having a squad that could compete for 1st in the league( and dare I say a Champions League Title?! ). Guirassy is a machine, Kovac proved his credentials, Svensson was the second wingback we've been missing and Jobe excited during the Club World Cup. We also didn't lose anyone crucial to the incredible ending last season. Gittens was a Sahin player and didn't impress much after the first few games and the other departures were subpar subs - liabilities, honestly. I'd love to go for it this season - who knows who may leave next season - but I get the frugality after last season's offseason. It's just frustrating to look this close to being a championship squad.

The Market

Transfer fees are growing at a concerning rate. It's no wonder that Dortmund are struggling to get players. Even before the spike of fees over the last couple years we were already playing for bargains and with these increasing fees I feel with the money we are spending we are falling out of bargain territory. We won't be able to gamble as often and big buys will come around less and less often. We also won't have the money to even try to bail us out of poor investments with the fees of the players required to do so. If we drop out of Champions League football for one season and players leave in mass, we may be stuck for a while. Thankfully, we have a long tradition of finding good bargains and making money off them. The higher fees are also more of an international problem than a domestic one - large part thanks to the Dortmund and Bundesliga fan protests of the international media deal - so we may drop in international play but domestically we should stay competitive.

That said, we should be spending more money on transfers. Our largest transfer is still Dembele at €35M in 2016! Jobe makes it into the top 5 for transfers of all time but besides him the other transfers are from 2022 or earlier. If this inflation tool is to be trusted €35M in 2016 would be €45M today. So even if we hadn't done better in international competitions and ignored massive transfer fees we received(Jude, Haaland) since 2016, we should be able to splurge on a €45-50M fee for a player now and again. It feels a bit like the fans are getting punished by the club for blocking the media deal last season and now they are trying to sell it as if we need an influx of cash to spend more when that just doesn't look like the case. Even if it was the case, I'd take doing worse internationally to keep the Bundesliga the way it is. I'm for the hesitation this season as I think we are in an identity crisis at the moment but within the next two offseasons a plan better be in place and the transfer fees have to start going up or we are in trouble.

Prediction for the season

Barring any injuries, I'm optimistic for this season. The players shined under Kovac at the end of last season - even without Schlotterbeck for the last handful of matches the squad still managed to pick up every point. Now that Kovac has had a full offseason with the squad, it can only be better right? I think we still have untapped talent as well. Before Beir's injury he looked to find his own under Kovac and Ryerson slotting into RB with Couto in his Wingback position looked playable for small stretches of the Club World Cup. So, if we can get a healthy season from everyone and with the addition of Jobe to the squad I think it'll be an exciting season.

To put cold hard numbers to it, again BARRING ANY INJURIES, I think we compete for 2nd in the Bundesliga and have a similar run in the Champions league. Honestly though, I'm not concerned with the Champions League this season. We could get knocked out it in the group stages for all I care. All I want this season is to see a consistent, solid performance domestically.

Now, if we have injuries, we are in trouble. The squad is razor thin. If we lose anyone the backup - if there even is one - for the injured player is at a far lesser quality and there would be no sub for that player. So, if even one of our star players goes down with an injury we will be fighting for 4th again and will need another fantastic winter transfer market to save us.

Let's go Dortmund!